We label toss-ups before the game, not after. Games projected inside a one-score margin are genuinely close to a coin flip: in 2025 our smallest-margin picks won just 61% of the time, and 16% of all Missouri games were decided by 7 points or less. Calling those honestly up front matters more than protecting a percentage. Each tier below shows how often that tier actually won last season.
TOSS-UP won 61% in 2025
LEAN 77%
FAVORED 85%
STRONG 92%
HEAVY 96%
Schedule coverage: 111 games predicted so far, 33 of them toss-ups.
A full regular season is 9 games (some schools play 8); playoff pairings are not set yet.
Right now 51 teams have posted a full slate, 73 have posted part of one, and 432 have not posted yet.
This page fills in automatically as schools publish.
| Matchup | Projected winner | Confidence | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08-21 | |||
| Collinsville at Althoff | Althoff | by 19 | FAVORED89% |
| Columbia at Mater Dei | Mater Dei | by 12 | LEAN78% |
| Dupo at Alton Marquette | Dupo | by 7 | LEAN69% |
| Triad at Highland | Highland | by 0 | TOSS-UP50% |
| 08-28 | |||
| Mehlville at Fox | Fox | by 29 | HEAVY96% |
| Bayless at Dupo | Dupo | by 23 | STRONG92% |
| Edwardsville at Jackson | Jackson | by 21 | STRONG91% |
| Centralia, Illinois at Civic Memorial | Centralia, Illinois | by 19 | FAVORED89% |
| Breese Central at Columbia | Breese Central | by 15 | FAVORED84% |
| O'Fallon at Francis Howell | Francis Howell | by 12 | LEAN79% |
| Staley at St. Joseph Central | Staley | by 11 | LEAN77% |
| Althoff at Highland | Althoff | by 8 | LEAN72% |
| Waterloo at Freeburg | Freeburg | by 5 | TOSS-UP63% |
| Parkway South at Parkway Central | Parkway Central | by 4 | TOSS-UP62% |
| Eureka at Troy Buchanan | Eureka | by 2 | TOSS-UP56% |
| 08-29 | |||
| Red Bud at Alton Marquette | Alton Marquette | by 3 | TOSS-UP59% |
| 09-04 | |||
| Civic Memorial at Breese Central | Breese Central | by 27 | HEAVY95% |
| Jerseyville at Centralia, Illinois | Centralia, Illinois | by 18 | FAVORED89% |
| St. Joseph Central at St. Joseph Benton | St. Joseph Central | by 17 | FAVORED87% |
| Parkway West at Parkway South | Parkway West | by 15 | FAVORED84% |
| Columbia at Waterloo | Waterloo | by 13 | LEAN80% |
| Troy Buchanan at O'Fallon | Troy Buchanan | by 11 | LEAN77% |
| Principia at Alton Marquette | Principia | by 10 | LEAN75% |
| Fox at Northwest Cedar Hill | Northwest Cedar Hill | by 8 | LEAN72% |
| Highland at Mascoutah | Mascoutah | by 7 | LEAN69% |
| Festus at St. Mary's | St. Mary's | by 6 | TOSS-UP65% |
| Belleville West at Marion | Belleville West | by 5 | TOSS-UP64% |
| Belleville East at Althoff | Belleville East | by 3 | TOSS-UP59% |
| 09-10 | |||
| Parkway South at Clayton | Parkway South | by 21 | STRONG91% |
| 09-11 | |||
| O'Fallon at East St. Louis | East St. Louis | by 38 | HEAVY98% |
| St. Joseph Central at Liberty (KC) | Liberty (KC) | by 30 | HEAVY96% |
| Hazelwood West at Fox | Fox | by 18 | FAVORED88% |
| Civic Memorial at Jerseyville | Jerseyville | by 8 | LEAN70% |
| Cahokia at St. Mary's | St. Mary's | by 6 | LEAN67% |
| Wesclin at Dupo | Dupo | by 6 | LEAN67% |
| Breese Central at Waterloo | Breese Central | by 5 | TOSS-UP64% |
| Mascoutah at Belleville West | Belleville West | by 5 | TOSS-UP62% |
| Hannibal at Troy Buchanan | Hannibal | by 4 | TOSS-UP61% |
| Marion at Highland | Highland | by 3 | TOSS-UP60% |
| Mater Dei at Roxana | Roxana | by 2 | TOSS-UP56% |
| Edwardsville at Belleville East | Belleville East | by 1 | TOSS-UP53% |
| Centralia, Illinois at Freeburg | Freeburg | by 1 | TOSS-UP51% |
| 09-17 | |||
| Troy Buchanan at Francis Howell Central | Troy Buchanan | by 22 | STRONG92% |
| 09-18 | |||
| Belleville East at East St. Louis | East St. Louis | by 30 | HEAVY97% |
| Alton Marquette at Mater Dei | Mater Dei | by 27 | HEAVY95% |
| Jerseyville at Breese Central | Breese Central | by 22 | STRONG92% |
| Columbia at Centralia, Illinois | Centralia, Illinois | by 17 | FAVORED86% |
| Freeburg at Civic Memorial | Freeburg | by 17 | FAVORED86% |
| St. Mary's at Jackson | Jackson | by 13 | FAVORED82% |
| Webster Groves at Parkway South | Parkway South | by 11 | LEAN78% |
| Roxana at Althoff | Althoff | by 9 | LEAN73% |
| Belleville West at O'Fallon | O'Fallon | by 5 | TOSS-UP64% |
| Triad at Mascoutah | Mascoutah | by 5 | TOSS-UP62% |
| Oak Park at St. Joseph Central | Oak Park | by 4 | TOSS-UP60% |
| Fox at Ladue | Ladue | by 3 | TOSS-UP57% |
| 09-25 | |||
| Althoff at Alton Marquette | Althoff | by 28 | HEAVY96% |
| Saxony Lutheran at Mater Dei | Mater Dei | by 26 | STRONG95% |
| East St. Louis at Edwardsville | East St. Louis | by 24 | STRONG93% |
| Parkway South at Oakville | Oakville | by 18 | FAVORED88% |
| Jerseyville at Freeburg | Freeburg | by 17 | FAVORED86% |
| Fox at Seckman | Seckman | by 15 | FAVORED83% |
| Red Bud at Dupo | Dupo | by 13 | LEAN81% |
| Belleville West at Belleville East | Belleville East | by 13 | LEAN80% |
| Fort Zumwalt West at Troy Buchanan | Troy Buchanan | by 11 | LEAN77% |
| Civic Memorial at Columbia | Columbia | by 9 | LEAN74% |
| Triad at O'Fallon | O'Fallon | by 9 | LEAN74% |
| Mascoutah at Collinsville | Mascoutah | by 7 | LEAN70% |
| Centralia, Illinois at Waterloo | Centralia, Illinois | by 2 | TOSS-UP54% |
| Park Hill South at St. Joseph Central | Park Hill South | by 1 | TOSS-UP52% |
| 10-02 | |||
| Francis Howell North at Troy Buchanan | Troy Buchanan | by 40 | HEAVY99% |
| East St. Louis at Belleville West | East St. Louis | by 35 | HEAVY98% |
| St. Joseph Central at Lee's Summit North | Lee's Summit North | by 29 | HEAVY96% |
| Marion at Cahokia | Cahokia | by 25 | STRONG94% |
| Collinsville at Belleville East | Belleville East | by 25 | STRONG94% |
| Waterloo at Civic Memorial | Waterloo | by 15 | FAVORED83% |
| Northwest Cedar Hill at Parkway South | Northwest Cedar Hill | by 14 | FAVORED83% |
| O'Fallon at Edwardsville | Edwardsville | by 11 | LEAN77% |
| Red Bud at Wesclin | Wesclin | by 9 | LEAN73% |
| Freeburg at Breese Central | Breese Central | by 8 | LEAN71% |
| Parkway West at Fox | Parkway West | by 4 | TOSS-UP60% |
| Althoff at Mater Dei | Althoff | by 4 | TOSS-UP60% |
| St. Mary's at Lift for Life | St. Mary's | by 3 | TOSS-UP59% |
| Columbia at Jerseyville | Jerseyville | by 1 | TOSS-UP52% |
| 10-09 | |||
| Pacific at St. Mary's | St. Mary's | by 33 | HEAVY98% |
| Alton Marquette at Roxana | Roxana | by 27 | STRONG95% |
| Highland at Cahokia | Cahokia | by 24 | STRONG94% |
| Fox at Kirkwood | Kirkwood | by 22 | STRONG92% |
| St. Joseph Central at Park Hill | Park Hill | by 20 | STRONG90% |
| Jerseyville at Waterloo | Waterloo | by 14 | FAVORED83% |
| Collinsville at Triad | Triad | by 10 | LEAN76% |
| Freeburg at Columbia | Freeburg | by 10 | LEAN75% |
| Edwardsville at Belleville West | Edwardsville | by 9 | LEAN73% |
| McCluer at Parkway South | Parkway South | by 8 | LEAN72% |
| Centralia, Illinois at Breese Central | Breese Central | by 6 | TOSS-UP66% |
| Belleville East at O'Fallon | Belleville East | by 5 | TOSS-UP63% |
| Troy Buchanan at Francis Howell | Troy Buchanan | by 1 | TOSS-UP53% |
| 10-16 | |||
| Freeburg at Red Bud | Freeburg | by 26 | STRONG95% |
| Riverview Gardens at Fox | Fox | by 25 | STRONG94% |
| Edwardsville at Collinsville | Edwardsville | by 21 | STRONG91% |
| Grain Valley at St. Joseph Central | Grain Valley | by 15 | FAVORED84% |
| Belleville East at Mascoutah | Belleville East | by 10 | LEAN74% |
| Highland at Waterloo | Waterloo | by 8 | LEAN72% |
| Liberty (Wentzville) at Troy Buchanan | Troy Buchanan | by 6 | LEAN67% |
| De Smet at St. Mary's | De Smet | by 4 | TOSS-UP60% |
| McCluer North at Parkway South | Parkway South | by 2 | TOSS-UP56% |
| Belleville West at Triad | Belleville West | by 2 | TOSS-UP54% |
| 10-22 | |||
| Parkway South vs Mehlville | Parkway South | by 15 | FAVORED84% |
| 10-23 | |||
| St. Joseph Central at North Kansas City | North Kansas City | by 17 | FAVORED86% |
| Fox at Parkway Central | Fox | by 7 | LEAN68% |
| Troy Buchanan at Fort Zumwalt North | Fort Zumwalt North | by 4 | TOSS-UP60% |
| Rock Bridge at St. Mary's | St. Mary's | by 1 | TOSS-UP52% |