2026 Preseason Missouri Football Power Rankings
Projected 2026 strength blends three measured components: the final 2025 power rating (SRS over 2,046 games statewide), progression-weighted returning production (graduated seniors removed; each returning player's production weighted by measured development curves — rising sophomores grow ~3.7x, rising juniors ~1.5x, rising seniors ~1.2x), and a program prior (three-season strength history, which captures reload programs that restock through transfers and feeder pipelines). Weights fitted on 2019–2024 transitions (n=451), window chosen by cross-validation (5 years beat 1, 3, and 8); the model beats naive carryover on held-out data (MAE 7.38 vs 8.10). Development curves measured from 2.9M production units: rising sophomores x2.15, juniors x1.66, seniors x1.22. *Returning = progression-weighted; est = roster data incomplete, regressed toward mean.
Read this first: preseason rankings are a starting line, not a verdict. The model's known blind spot is transfers and incoming freshmen — it only sees players who produced varsity stats last season. Blue Springs South opens #1 after the most dominant 2025 in the state. The Reload column is new: programs that beat their returning-talent projection year after year (transfers, elite freshmen, feeder pipelines) earn a measured bonus — Cardinal Ritter (+4.3/season over 8 years), St. Dominic (+4.2), De Smet (+2.9), CBC (+2.1) all earned theirs from history, not reputation. Validation: adding reload left holdout accuracy unchanged (MAE 7.39 vs 7.38), so it costs nothing predictively and aligns preseason ranks with how these programs actually behave. Known transfers can still be credited via editorial adjustment. These rankings re-rate every week once games begin.
Missouri Preseason Top 25
| Rk | Team | Class | 2025 Rec | 2025 SRS | Reload | Returning* | 2026 Proj |
|---|
| 1 | Blue Springs South | C6D? | 9-1 | +53.2 | +0.0 | est | +46.2 |
| 2 | Nixa | C6D5 | 13-1 | +43.8 | +0.0 | est | +39.8 |
| 3 | Platte County | C5D8 | 14-0 | +44.7 | +0.0 | est | +38.6 |
| 4 | Rockhurst | C5D8 | 9-3 | +40.9 | +0.0 | est | +37.2 |
| 5 | Blue Springs | C6D6 | 8-4 | +41.5 | +0.0 | est | +36.0 |
| 6 | Liberty (KC) | C6D? | 10-2 | +39.7 | +0.0 | est | +36.0 |
| 7 | Carthage | C5D6 | 12-2 | +41.0 | +0.0 | est | +35.7 |
| 8 | Lee's Summit | C6D7 | 10-4 | +39.2 | +0.0 | est | +35.2 |
| 9 | Lee's Summit North | C6D7 | 6-4 | +35.9 | +0.0 | est | +35.0 |
| 10 | Liberty North | C6D8 | 7-5 | +36.3 | +0.0 | est | +34.9 |
| 11 | CBC | C6D2 | 11-1 | +47.1 | +0.0 | 30% | +34.8 |
| 12 | Cardinal Ritter | C5D3 | 9-4 | +33.9 | +0.0 | 80% | +33.6 |
| 13 | Jackson | C6D1 | 12-1 | +36.7 | +0.0 | est | +32.8 |
| 14 | Kearney | C4D8 | 14-0 | +36.3 | +0.0 | est | +32.7 |
| 15 | Helias | C6D6 | 11-1 | +36.1 | +0.0 | est | +32.1 |
| 16 | Republic | C5D6 | 9-3 | +35.9 | +0.0 | est | +31.7 |
| 17 | De Smet | C6D2 | 6-5 | +27.7 | +0.0 | 75% | +27.9 |
| 18 | Webb City | C5D6 | 7-4 | +30.9 | +0.0 | est | +27.9 |
| 19 | Seneca | C3D6 | 13-1 | +29.0 | +0.0 | est | +27.2 |
| 20 | Park Hill | C6D8 | 5-5 | +28.4 | +0.0 | est | +26.6 |
| 21 | Grain Valley | C5D7 | 8-4 | +30.2 | +0.0 | est | +26.4 |
| 22 | Blair Oaks | C2D5 | 14-0 | +27.9 | +0.0 | est | +26.4 |
| 23 | Hannibal | C4D5 | 11-3 | +29.4 | +0.0 | est | +25.3 |
| 24 | Lee's Summit West | C6D7 | 4-7 | +27.4 | +0.0 | est | +25.1 |
| 25 | Joplin | C6D5 | 5-6 | +26.9 | +0.0 | est | +24.8 |
By MSHSAA Class
Class 6 — Preseason Top 10
| Rk | Team | 2025 | Ret | Proj |
|---|
| 1 | Blue Springs South | 9-1 | est | +46.2 |
| 2 | Nixa | 13-1 | est | +39.8 |
| 3 | Blue Springs | 8-4 | est | +36.0 |
| 4 | Liberty (KC) | 10-2 | est | +36.0 |
| 5 | Lee's Summit | 10-4 | est | +35.2 |
| 6 | Lee's Summit North | 6-4 | est | +35.0 |
| 7 | Liberty North | 7-5 | est | +34.9 |
| 8 | CBC | 11-1 | 30% | +34.8 |
| 9 | Jackson | 12-1 | est | +32.8 |
| 10 | Helias | 11-1 | est | +32.1 |
Class 5 — Preseason Top 10
| Rk | Team | 2025 | Ret | Proj |
|---|
| 1 | Platte County | 14-0 | est | +38.6 |
| 2 | Rockhurst | 9-3 | est | +37.2 |
| 3 | Carthage | 12-2 | est | +35.7 |
| 4 | Cardinal Ritter | 9-4 | 80% | +33.6 |
| 5 | Republic | 9-3 | est | +31.7 |
| 6 | Webb City | 7-4 | est | +27.9 |
| 7 | Grain Valley | 8-4 | est | +26.4 |
| 8 | Eureka | 8-3 | 61% | +23.6 |
| 9 | Kirkwood | 11-2 | 46% | +22.6 |
| 10 | St. Pius X-Kansas City | 6-5 | est | +22.0 |
Class 4 — Preseason Top 10
| Rk | Team | 2025 | Ret | Proj |
|---|
| 1 | Kearney | 14-0 | est | +32.7 |
| 2 | Hannibal | 11-3 | est | +25.3 |
| 3 | St. Mary's | 9-4 | 95% | +21.8 |
| 4 | Smithville | 8-3 | est | +20.2 |
| 5 | Savannah | 10-2 | est | +18.8 |
| 6 | Festus | 10-3 | est | +18.6 |
| 7 | West Plains | 9-3 | est | +17.5 |
| 8 | Parkway North | 10-2 | 70% | +16.8 |
| 9 | Lutheran North | 6-4 | 83% | +15.0 |
| 10 | Nevada | 8-4 | est | +13.7 |
Class 3 — Preseason Top 10
| Rk | Team | 2025 | Ret | Proj |
|---|
| 1 | Seneca | 13-1 | est | +27.2 |
| 2 | Valle Catholic | 10-1 | est | +18.2 |
| 3 | Lift for Life | 10-5 | 68% | +16.2 |
| 4 | Maryville | 9-3 | est | +14.5 |
| 5 | Cassville | 8-4 | est | +12.1 |
| 6 | Mountain Grove | 10-2 | est | +10.0 |
| 7 | Mount Vernon | 6-5 | est | +9.5 |
| 8 | Osage | 9-3 | est | +8.3 |
| 9 | St. Michael the Archangel | 9-5 | est | +8.2 |
| 10 | Dexter | 10-2 | est | +7.4 |
Class 2 — Preseason Top 10
| Rk | Team | 2025 | Ret | Proj |
|---|
| 1 | Blair Oaks | 14-0 | est | +26.4 |
| 2 | Lamar | 8-4 | est | +14.1 |
| 3 | Monroe City | 11-2 | est | +11.5 |
| 4 | Tolton | 8-3 | est | +11.3 |
| 5 | St. Pius X | 9-6 | 122% | +11.2 |
| 6 | Mid-Buchanan | 11-1 | est | +9.5 |
| 7 | Mountain View-Liberty | 10-3 | est | +9.0 |
| 8 | Centralia, Mo. | 10-2 | est | +8.8 |
| 9 | Holden | 9-3 | est | +3.4 |
| 10 | North Callaway | 8-2 | est | +2.2 |
Class 1 — Preseason Top 10
| Rk | Team | 2025 | Ret | Proj |
|---|
| 1 | Marionville | 9-2 | est | +11.0 |
| 2 | Tipton | 13-1 | est | +9.3 |
| 3 | Thayer | 10-2 | est | +7.5 |
| 4 | Salisbury | 11-1 | est | +0.8 |
| 5 | Putnam County | 13-1 | est | +0.5 |
| 6 | Ash Grove | 6-2 | est | -2.2 |
| 7 | Adrian | 8-4 | est | -3.1 |
| 8 | West Platte | 9-4 | est | -3.7 |
| 9 | Russellville | 8-3 | est | -7.9 |
| 10 | North Platte | 6-5 | est | -8.7 |
How we grade ourselves: our engine called 79.9% of winners in a walk-forward backtest of the 2025 season (1,475 games, each week predicted using only prior results), with calibrated win probabilities from toss-up (61%) to four-score favorites (96%). The weekly accuracy tracker will be published all season.