Why the ranks have ranges, and why this stops at 30 states.
Each program is rated against the teams it actually plays, which is almost entirely inside its own state.
Putting two states on one scale needs games played across the state line, and there are few of them: about 2% of all games.
So each state's position carries real uncertainty, listed below, and a Texas program compared to a Missouri one inherits it.
The Range column redraws every state's position from its own interval and reports where each program lands.
Utah (13.7), New York (13.8), Delaware (14.1), Idaho (14.1), Washington (15.0), Hawaii (15.5), Oregon (15.8), Nebraska (15.8), Wyoming (17.2), South Dakota (17.4), Rhode Island (24.6), Alaska (25.4), New Hampshire (26.0), Massachusetts (26.3), Iowa (26.5), Connecticut (29.9), Maine (30.5), Vermont (31.0), Minnesota (35.0), Montana (40.2) and North Dakota (61.3) are all rated in our data and are deliberately absent, with the width of each cross-state window in brackets. Those windows are wider than the gaps between the programs on this list, so including them would add names without adding knowledge. Utah misses by the smallest margin, at 13.7 against a 13 point line, which is a reminder that the line is a judgement rather than a fact about football. We would rather publish 30 states we can defend than 51 we cannot.
Utah (13.7), New York (13.8), Delaware (14.1), Idaho (14.1), Washington (15.0), Hawaii (15.5), Oregon (15.8), Nebraska (15.8), Wyoming (17.2), South Dakota (17.4), Rhode Island (24.6), Alaska (25.4), New Hampshire (26.0), Massachusetts (26.3), Iowa (26.5), Connecticut (29.9), Maine (30.5), Vermont (31.0), Minnesota (35.0), Montana (40.2) and North Dakota (61.3) are all rated in our data and are deliberately absent, with the width of each cross-state window in brackets. Those windows are wider than the gaps between the programs on this list, so including them would add names without adding knowledge. Utah misses by the smallest margin, at 13.7 against a 13 point line, which is a reminder that the line is a judgement rather than a fact about football. We would rather publish 30 states we can defend than 51 we cannot.
The 30 states, and how well each is placed
| State | Games | Offset | 95% range | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 1789 | -26.50 | -32.2 to -21.0 | 11.2 |
| Nevada | 1252 | -15.98 | -22.3 to -9.7 | 12.7 |
| Arizona | 4111 | -14.71 | -21.4 to -8.3 | 13.0 |
| California | 18935 | -12.06 | -18.1 to -6.1 | 12.0 |
| West Virginia | 1669 | -9.86 | -15.0 to -4.6 | 10.4 |
| Oklahoma | 5542 | -6.00 | -11.3 to -0.8 | 10.5 |
| Colorado | 4171 | -5.54 | -10.9 to -0.2 | 10.6 |
| Kansas | 4873 | -4.66 | -8.7 to -0.6 | 8.1 |
| Louisiana | 5592 | -4.63 | -10.4 to +0.9 | 11.3 |
| Arkansas | 3424 | -4.39 | -8.7 to -0.1 | 8.7 |
| Alabama | 7119 | -3.62 | -9.4 to +2.4 | 11.8 |
| District of Columbia | 270 | -3.45 | -9.6 to +3.1 | 12.7 |
| Michigan | 8967 | -2.36 | -8.4 to +3.7 | 12.1 |
| Kentucky | 3892 | -2.33 | -7.5 to +3.0 | 10.5 |
| Pennsylvania | 9409 | -1.60 | -7.2 to +4.0 | 11.2 |
| Virginia | 5764 | -1.58 | -6.8 to +3.9 | 10.6 |
| Maryland | 3307 | -0.71 | -6.4 to +5.1 | 11.5 |
| Indiana | 5297 | -0.45 | -5.6 to +4.7 | 10.3 |
| Illinois | 8228 | -0.28 | -3.7 to +3.0 | 6.7 |
| New Jersey | 5271 | -0.08 | -6.2 to +6.0 | 12.2 |
| Missouri (pinned at zero) | 5809 | +0.00 | +0.0 to +0.0 | 0.0 |
| Texas | 24803 | +0.63 | -4.2 to +5.4 | 9.6 |
| North Carolina | 7181 | +1.62 | -3.9 to +7.4 | 11.3 |
| Tennessee | 6024 | +2.75 | -2.1 to +7.8 | 9.9 |
| Ohio | 12156 | +4.26 | -0.6 to +9.1 | 9.7 |
| South Carolina | 4313 | +4.30 | -1.4 to +10.1 | 11.5 |
| Wisconsin | 6524 | +4.84 | -1.6 to +11.2 | 12.8 |
| Florida | 10021 | +6.15 | +1.1 to +11.4 | 10.3 |
| Mississippi | 4857 | +8.06 | +2.5 to +13.7 | 11.2 |
| Georgia | 8348 | +12.89 | +7.5 to +18.5 | 11.0 |
Offset is points relative to Missouri, measured only from games played across state lines. A smaller window means the state's position is better pinned down.
Where this page is on thinner ice. Putting two states on one scale assumes the only difference between them is a shift, and that every point is worth the same in both. Tested on the games played between them, that holds for most pairs and fails for 5: LA-MS (0.76), CA-NV (1.23), MI-OH (0.88), AR-OK (1.40), AL-MS (1.24), where 1.00 would mean the scales match. For those pairs an offset moves the average into place but still misjudges the extremes, which is where a top-50 list lives. The rank ranges do not capture this, because they vary the offset and not the scale.
Why some famous programs are missing. A program needs 20 games against its own state to be ranked here, because every rating on this page is built out of in-state results and a program with three of them cannot be placed against one with forty. That bar removes the national academies, which is not a judgement about how good they are: Bethesda Academy (GA, 39 games, 0 in state), St. Frances Academy (MD, 41 games, 5 in state), Rabun Gap-Nacoochee (GA, 40 games, 4 in state), Illinois Crusaders (IL, 40 games, 5 in state), Maryland School for the Deaf (MD, 36 games, 1 in state). IMG Academy is the clearest case: 31 games in our data and 8 against Florida opposition. They play a national schedule by design, so the thing that makes them interesting is exactly the thing that makes them unrankable by this method. Rating them would take a national solve, and centering_test.py is the reason we do not publish one.
Top 50 programs
| Rk | Program | City | 3-yr Rec | Rating | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buford GA | Buford | 36-4 | +68.8 | 1–9 |
| 2 | Carrollton GA | Carrollton | 37-4 | +68.6 | 2–10 |
| 3 | Thomas County Central GA | Thomasville | 38-2 | +68.1 | 3–12 |
| 4 | Bixby OK | Bixby | 37-2 | +68.0 | 1–13 |
| 5 | Duncanville TX | Duncanville | 39-4 | +66.6 | 1–13 |
| 6 | Mater Dei CA | Santa Ana | 24-5 | +65.5 | 1–20 |
| 7 | DeSoto TX | DeSoto | 39-6 | +65.4 | 2–17 |
| 8 | Liberty AZ | Peoria | 34-1 | +63.2 | 1–39 |
| 9 | Southlake Carroll TX | Southlake | 42-5 | +63.0 | 4–27 |
| 10 | St. John Bosco CA | Bellflower | 21-5 | +62.9 | 3–33 |
| 11 | North Crowley TX | Fort Worth | 42-4 | +62.6 | 6–30 |
| 12 | Grayson GA | Loganville | 30-5 | +62.3 | 5–35 |
| 13 | Langston Hughes GA | Fairburn | 34-5 | +61.8 | 6–40 |
| 14 | Northwestern SC | Rock Hill | 37-2 | +61.7 | 3–44 |
| 15 | Lee County GA | Leesburg | 28-8 | +60.7 | 7–47 |
| 16 | Dutch Fork SC | Irmo | 35-3 | +60.7 | 5–57 |
| 17 | Chicago Mt. Carmel IL | Chicago | 38-4 | +60.0 | 9–39 |
| 18 | Rome GA | Rome | 33-8 | +59.8 | 9–56 |
| 19 | Milton GA | Milton | 34-5 | +59.4 | 11–63 |
| 20 | St. Joseph's Prep PA | Philadelphia | 22-3 | +59.2 | 7–64 |
| 21 | Centennial CA | Corona | 23-7 | +59.2 | 8–66 |
| 22 | Bryant AR | Bryant | 37-2 | +58.4 | 11–62 |
| 23 | Thompson AL | Alabaster | 32-8 | +58.1 | 8–86 |
| 24 | East St. Louis IL | East St. Louis | 30-3 | +58.0 | 15–58 |
| 25 | Aledo TX | Aledo | 42-3 | +58.0 | 12–65 |
| 26 | Brownsburg IN | Brownsburg | 38-2 | +58.0 | 10–75 |
| 27 | Lincoln-Way East IL | Frankfort | 33-5-1 | +57.5 | 17–65 |
| 28 | North Shore TX | Houston | 45-5 | +57.4 | 14–73 |
| 29 | Douglas County GA | Douglasville | 35-9 | +57.2 | 14–90 |
| 30 | Allen TX | Allen | 37-7 | +57.2 | 15–75 |
| 31 | Hough NC | Cornelius | 35-2 | +57.1 | 10–93 |
| 32 | Chaminade-Madonna FL | Hollywood | 37-3 | +56.6 | 13–105 |
| 33 | Creekside GA | Fairburn | 36-2 | +56.4 | 17–105 |
| 34 | Liberty North MO | Liberty | 28-10 | +56.4 | 28–56 |
| 35 | Summer Creek TX | Houston | 42-7 | +56.4 | 18–88 |
| 36 | Celina TX | Celina | 41-3 | +56.3 | 19–89 |
| 37 | Irmo SC | Columbia | 36-5 | +56.2 | 13–122 |
| 38 | Tupelo MS | Tupelo | 32-4 | +56.0 | 13–115 |
| 39 | Cherry Creek CO | Greenwood Village | 35-1 | +56.0 | 14–111 |
| 40 | Gainesville GA | Gainesville | 28-8 | +55.9 | 19–112 |
| 41 | Sierra Canyon CA | Chatsworth | 25-6 | +55.7 | 15–119 |
| 42 | Maury VA | Norfolk | 42-0 | +55.6 | 15–120 |
| 43 | North Gwinnett GA | Suwanee | 31-7 | +55.5 | 21–116 |
| 44 | St. Thomas Aquinas FL | Fort Lauderdale | 39-2 | +55.4 | 18–126 |
| 45 | Roswell GA | Roswell | 32-7 | +55.2 | 23–125 |
| 46 | Colquitt County GA | Norman Park | 26-9 | +55.2 | 24–126 |
| 47 | Archbishop Spalding MD | Severn | 29-1 | +55.1 | 14–150 |
| 48 | Basha AZ | Chandler | 32-4 | +54.8 | 18–151 |
| 49 | Greenwood AR | Greenwood | 38-1 | +54.7 | 23–109 |
| 50 | Bergen Catholic NJ | Oradell | 26-3 | +54.5 | 18–160 |
Programs need 20+ in-state games across the three seasons to be ranked. Records are in-state only. Ratings are schedule-adjusted scoring margin, uncapped, scaled by 0.82 before crossing a state line. A rating earned at home does not carry full weight elsewhere: fit on the interstate games themselves it holds 0.82 of its value, and holding a season out that beats the unshrunk version in every fold. It changes nothing within a state and matters only when comparing across one.