Which states are here, and why the rest are not.
Programs are rated against the teams they actually play, which is almost entirely inside their own state.
Placing a state against the others takes games played across its borders, 3% of the games in these states' files.
A state is on this list when that placement is tight enough to rank its programs against everyone else's:
a 95% window of 13.1 points or less, resting on at least 20 cross-state games.
Those are the Heartland rules, applied to every state we have.
On the list (30): Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
Rated, but placed too loosely (21): Utah (13.7), New York (13.8), Delaware (14.1), Idaho (14.1), Washington (15.0), Hawaii (15.5), Oregon (15.8), Nebraska (15.8), Wyoming (17.2), South Dakota (17.4), Rhode Island (24.6), Alaska (25.4), New Hampshire (26.0), Massachusetts (26.3), Iowa (26.5), Connecticut (29.9), Maine (30.5), Vermont (31.0), Minnesota (35.0), Montana (40.2) and North Dakota (61.3). The number is the width of that state's 95% window in points, against a 13.1 point line. Windows that wide are bigger than the gaps between programs on this list, so including them would add names without adding knowledge.
On the list (30): Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
Rated, but placed too loosely (21): Utah (13.7), New York (13.8), Delaware (14.1), Idaho (14.1), Washington (15.0), Hawaii (15.5), Oregon (15.8), Nebraska (15.8), Wyoming (17.2), South Dakota (17.4), Rhode Island (24.6), Alaska (25.4), New Hampshire (26.0), Massachusetts (26.3), Iowa (26.5), Connecticut (29.9), Maine (30.5), Vermont (31.0), Minnesota (35.0), Montana (40.2) and North Dakota (61.3). The number is the width of that state's 95% window in points, against a 13.1 point line. Windows that wide are bigger than the gaps between programs on this list, so including them would add names without adding knowledge.
Why some famous programs are missing.
A program needs 20 games against its own state to be ranked here, because every rating on this page
is built out of in-state results and a program with three of them cannot be placed against one with forty.
That bar removes the national academies such as IMG Academy, which is not a judgement about how good they are.
They play a national schedule by design, so the thing that makes them interesting is exactly the thing that
makes them unrankable by this method.
The 30 states, and how well each is placed
| State | Programs | In top 100 | Offset | 95% range | Window | X-state games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 497 | 24 | +12.89 | +7.5 to +18.5 | 11.0 | 301 |
| Mississippi | 285 | 2 | +8.06 | +2.5 to +13.7 | 11.2 | 160 |
| Florida | 588 | 2 | +6.15 | +1.1 to +11.4 | 10.3 | 267 |
| Wisconsin | 412 | 0 | +4.84 | -1.6 to +11.2 | 12.8 | 62 |
| South Carolina | 248 | 4 | +4.30 | -1.4 to +10.1 | 11.5 | 144 |
| Ohio | 708 | 4 | +4.26 | -0.6 to +9.1 | 9.7 | 370 |
| Tennessee | 353 | 1 | +2.75 | -2.1 to +7.8 | 9.9 | 230 |
| North Carolina | 420 | 3 | +1.62 | -3.9 to +7.4 | 11.3 | 161 |
| Texas | 1,474 | 16 | +0.63 | -4.2 to +5.4 | 9.6 | 203 |
| Missouri (pinned at zero) | 341 | 6 | +0.00 | pinned | 0.0 | 195 |
| New Jersey | 333 | 1 | -0.08 | -6.2 to +6.0 | 12.2 | 107 |
| Illinois | 534 | 5 | -0.28 | -3.7 to +3.0 | 6.7 | 167 |
| Indiana | 316 | 4 | -0.45 | -5.6 to +4.7 | 10.3 | 139 |
| Maryland | 194 | 1 | -0.71 | -6.4 to +5.1 | 11.5 | 185 |
| Virginia | 340 | 1 | -1.58 | -6.8 to +3.9 | 10.6 | 225 |
| Pennsylvania | 551 | 3 | -1.60 | -7.2 to +4.0 | 11.2 | 172 |
| Kentucky | 219 | 0 | -2.33 | -7.5 to +3.0 | 10.5 | 190 |
| Michigan | 589 | 0 | -2.36 | -8.4 to +3.7 | 12.1 | 125 |
| District of Columbia | 16 | 0 | -3.45 | -9.6 to +3.1 | 12.7 | 58 |
| Alabama | 427 | 4 | -3.62 | -9.4 to +2.4 | 11.8 | 182 |
| Arkansas | 202 | 4 | -4.39 | -8.7 to -0.1 | 8.7 | 146 |
| Louisiana | 318 | 0 | -4.63 | -10.4 to +0.9 | 11.3 | 104 |
| Kansas | 326 | 1 | -4.66 | -8.7 to -0.6 | 8.1 | 120 |
| Colorado | 265 | 2 | -5.54 | -10.9 to -0.2 | 10.6 | 150 |
| Oklahoma | 333 | 3 | -6.00 | -11.3 to -0.8 | 10.5 | 145 |
| West Virginia | 103 | 0 | -9.86 | -15.0 to -4.6 | 10.4 | 216 |
| California | 1,135 | 6 | -12.06 | -18.1 to -6.1 | 12.0 | 323 |
| Arizona | 254 | 3 | -14.71 | -21.4 to -8.3 | 13.0 | 98 |
| Nevada | 85 | 0 | -15.98 | -22.3 to -9.7 | 12.7 | 207 |
| New Mexico | 115 | 0 | -26.50 | -32.2 to -21.0 | 11.2 | 125 |
Offset is points relative to Missouri, measured only from games played across state lines. Programs counts those with 20+ in-state games. A smaller window means the state's position is better pinned down.
Where this list is on thinner ice. Putting two states on one scale assumes the only difference between them is a shift, and that every point is worth the same in both. Tested on the games played between them, that holds for most pairs and fails for 5: LA-MS (0.76), CA-NV (1.23), MI-OH (0.88), AR-OK (1.40), AL-MS (1.24), where 1.00 would mean the scales match. For those pairs an offset moves the average into place but still misjudges the extremes, which is where a top-100 list lives. The rank ranges do not capture this, because they vary the offset and not the scale.
Top 100 programs
| Rk | Program | 3-yr Rec | In-state | State offset | National | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buford GA Buford | 36-4 | +68.1 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +68.8 | 1–8 |
| 2 | Carrollton GA Carrollton | 37-4 | +67.9 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +68.6 | 2–9 |
| 3 | Thomas County Central GA Thomasville | 38-2 | +67.4 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +68.1 | 3–11 |
| 4 | Bixby OK Bixby | 37-2 | +90.3 | -6.0 -11.3 to -0.8 | +68.0 | 1–14 |
| 5 | Duncanville TX Duncanville | 39-4 | +80.5 | +0.6 -4.2 to +5.4 | +66.6 | 1–12 |
| 6 | Mater Dei CA Santa Ana | 24-5 | +94.6 | -12.1 -18.1 to -6.1 | +65.5 | 1–20 |
| 7 | DeSoto TX DeSoto | 39-6 | +79.0 | +0.6 -4.2 to +5.4 | +65.4 | 2–16 |
| 8 | Liberty AZ Peoria | 34-1 | +95.0 | -14.7 -21.4 to -8.3 | +63.2 | 1–41 |
| 9 | Southlake Carroll TX Southlake | 42-5 | +76.0 | +0.6 -4.2 to +5.4 | +63.0 | 5–27 |
| 10 | St. John Bosco CA Bellflower | 21-5 | +91.4 | -12.1 -18.1 to -6.1 | +62.9 | 3–34 |
| 11 | North Crowley TX Fort Worth | 42-4 | +75.6 | +0.6 -4.2 to +5.4 | +62.6 | 7–31 |
| 12 | Grayson GA Loganville | 30-5 | +60.2 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +62.3 | 4–29 |
| 13 | Langston Hughes GA Fairburn | 34-5 | +59.7 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +61.8 | 5–33 |
| 14 | Northwestern SC Rock Hill | 37-2 | +70.0 | +4.3 -1.4 to +10.1 | +61.7 | 2–47 |
| 15 | Lee County GA Leesburg | 28-8 | +58.4 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +60.7 | 7–41 |
| 16 | Dutch Fork SC Irmo | 35-3 | +68.8 | +4.3 -1.4 to +10.1 | +60.7 | 5–58 |
| 17 | Chicago Mt. Carmel IL Chicago | 38-4 | +73.5 | -0.3 -3.7 to +3.0 | +60.0 | 9–43 |
| 18 | Rome GA Rome | 33-8 | +57.2 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +59.8 | 9–50 |
| 19 | Milton GA Milton | 34-5 | +56.7 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +59.4 | 10–52 |
| 20 | St. Joseph's Prep PA Philadelphia | 22-3 | +74.2 | -1.6 -7.2 to +4.0 | +59.2 | 8–71 |
| 21 | Centennial CA Corona | 23-7 | +86.9 | -12.1 -18.1 to -6.1 | +59.2 | 8–69 |
| 22 | Bryant AR Bryant | 37-2 | +76.6 | -4.4 -8.7 to -0.1 | +58.4 | 10–57 |
| 23 | Thompson AL Alabaster | 32-8 | +75.3 | -3.6 -9.4 to +2.4 | +58.1 | 8–80 |
| 24 | East St. Louis IL East St. Louis | 30-3 | +71.1 | -0.3 -3.7 to +3.0 | +58.0 | 15–62 |
| 25 | Aledo TX Aledo | 42-3 | +70.0 | +0.6 -4.2 to +5.4 | +58.0 | 12–68 |
| 26 | Brownsburg IN Brownsburg | 38-2 | +71.3 | -0.4 -5.6 to +4.7 | +58.0 | 10–78 |
| 27 | Lincoln-Way East IL Frankfort | 33-5-1 | +70.5 | -0.3 -3.7 to +3.0 | +57.5 | 18–69 |
| 28 | North Shore TX Houston | 45-5 | +69.3 | +0.6 -4.2 to +5.4 | +57.4 | 15–74 |
| 29 | Douglas County GA Douglasville | 35-9 | +54.1 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +57.2 | 15–79 |
| 30 | Allen TX Allen | 37-7 | +69.0 | +0.6 -4.2 to +5.4 | +57.2 | 16–79 |
| 31 | Hough NC Cornelius | 35-2 | +67.7 | +1.6 -3.9 to +7.4 | +57.1 | 10–86 |
| 32 | Chaminade-Madonna FL Hollywood | 37-3 | +61.5 | +6.1 +1.1 to +11.4 | +56.6 | 13–92 |
| 33 | Creekside GA Fairburn | 36-2 | +53.1 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +56.4 | 16–89 |
| 34 | Liberty North MO Liberty | 28-10 | +68.7 | +0.0 pinned | +56.4 | 29–56 |
| 35 | Summer Creek TX Houston | 42-7 | +68.0 | +0.6 -4.2 to +5.4 | +56.4 | 19–90 |
| 36 | Celina TX Celina | 41-3 | +67.9 | +0.6 -4.2 to +5.4 | +56.3 | 20–94 |
| 37 | Irmo SC Columbia | 36-5 | +63.3 | +4.3 -1.4 to +10.1 | +56.2 | 13–122 |
| 38 | Tupelo MS Tupelo | 32-4 | +58.5 | +8.1 +2.5 to +13.7 | +56.0 | 12–119 |
| 39 | Cherry Creek CO Greenwood Village | 35-1 | +75.0 | -5.5 -10.9 to -0.2 | +56.0 | 12–124 |
| 40 | Gainesville GA Gainesville | 28-8 | +52.4 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +55.9 | 18–97 |
| 41 | Sierra Canyon CA Chatsworth | 25-6 | +82.7 | -12.1 -18.1 to -6.1 | +55.7 | 14–122 |
| 42 | Maury VA Norfolk | 42-0 | +69.7 | -1.6 -6.8 to +3.9 | +55.6 | 14–124 |
| 43 | North Gwinnett GA Suwanee | 31-7 | +52.0 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +55.5 | 20–107 |
| 44 | St. Thomas Aquinas FL Fort Lauderdale | 39-2 | +60.0 | +6.1 +1.1 to +11.4 | +55.4 | 16–116 |
| 45 | Roswell GA Roswell | 32-7 | +51.6 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +55.2 | 21–110 |
| 46 | Colquitt County GA Norman Park | 26-9 | +51.6 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +55.2 | 23–112 |
| 47 | Archbishop Spalding MD Severn | 29-1 | +68.0 | -0.7 -6.4 to +5.1 | +55.1 | 16–137 |
| 48 | Basha AZ Chandler | 32-4 | +84.7 | -14.7 -21.4 to -8.3 | +54.8 | 16–175 |
| 49 | Greenwood AR Greenwood | 38-1 | +72.1 | -4.4 -8.7 to -0.1 | +54.7 | 23–111 |
| 50 | Bergen Catholic NJ Oradell | 26-3 | +66.6 | -0.1 -6.2 to +6.0 | +54.5 | 18–162 |
| 51 | North Oconee GA Bogart | 41-2 | +50.6 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +54.4 | 26–128 |
| 52 | Bentonville AR Bentonville | 29-6 | +71.5 | -4.4 -8.7 to -0.1 | +54.3 | 26–121 |
| 53 | Avon OH Avon | 48-1 | +61.0 | +4.3 -0.6 to +9.1 | +54.2 | 20–125 |
| 54 | Loyola Academy IL Wilmette | 29-8 | +66.5 | -0.3 -3.7 to +3.0 | +54.2 | 31–119 |
| 55 | Weddington NC Matthews | 38-6 | +64.0 | +1.6 -3.9 to +7.4 | +54.1 | 19–135 |
| 56 | Houston County GA Warner Robins | 29-10 | +50.2 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +54.0 | 28–137 |
| 57 | Archbishop Moeller OH Cincinnati | 26-6 | +60.7 | +4.3 -0.6 to +9.1 | +54.0 | 21–133 |
| 58 | Carthage TX Carthage | 45-3 | +65.1 | +0.6 -4.2 to +5.4 | +54.0 | 27–126 |
| 59 | Benedictine GA Savannah | 31-9 | +49.9 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +53.8 | 30–144 |
| 60 | Nixa MO Nixa | 38-3 | +65.5 | +0.0 pinned | +53.7 | 50–86 |
| 61 | Central AL Phenix City | 32-5 | +69.9 | -3.6 -9.4 to +2.4 | +53.7 | 21–164 |
| 62 | Longview TX Longview | 30-8 | +64.7 | +0.6 -4.2 to +5.4 | +53.6 | 31–133 |
| 63 | Christian Brothers College MO St. Louis | 23-4 | +65.4 | +0.0 pinned | +53.6 | 51–88 |
| 64 | Mission Viejo CA Mission Viejo | 29-4 | +80.0 | -12.1 -18.1 to -6.1 | +53.6 | 21–174 |
| 65 | Owasso OK Owasso | 32-7 | +72.6 | -6.0 -11.3 to -0.8 | +53.6 | 21–168 |
| 66 | Walton GA Marietta | 28-12 | +49.4 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +53.4 | 33–156 |
| 67 | Mill Creek GA Hoschton | 26-9 | +49.3 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +53.3 | 34–158 |
| 68 | La Salle College PA Wyndmoor | 26-7 | +66.9 | -1.6 -7.2 to +4.0 | +53.3 | 28–170 |
| 69 | Lee's Summit North MO Lee's Summit | 23-5 | +64.7 | +0.0 pinned | +53.1 | 56–96 |
| 70 | Westfield IN Westfield | 36-8 | +65.2 | -0.4 -5.6 to +4.7 | +53.0 | 27–174 |
| 71 | Andale KS Andale | 36-2 | +70.3 | -4.7 -8.7 to -0.6 | +53.0 | 32–144 |
| 72 | Baylor TN Chattanooga | 24-3 | +61.3 | +2.8 -2.1 to +7.8 | +53.0 | 28–164 |
| 73 | Grimsley NC Greensboro | 43-1 | +62.6 | +1.6 -3.9 to +7.4 | +52.9 | 25–163 |
| 74 | Central Catholic PA Pittsburgh | 34-6 | +66.5 | -1.6 -7.2 to +4.0 | +52.9 | 30–182 |
| 75 | North Cobb GA Kennesaw | 26-9 | +48.8 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +52.9 | 37–167 |
| 76 | Santa Margarita CA Rancho Santa Margarita | 20-16 | +79.2 | -12.1 -18.1 to -6.1 | +52.9 | 24–192 |
| 77 | Jenks OK Jenks | 27-11 | +71.8 | -6.0 -11.3 to -0.8 | +52.9 | 26–189 |
| 78 | Center Grove IN Greenwood | 22-7 | +64.6 | -0.4 -5.6 to +4.7 | +52.6 | 31–186 |
| 79 | Saraland AL Saraland | 40-3 | +68.4 | -3.6 -9.4 to +2.4 | +52.5 | 26–196 |
| 80 | Valdosta GA Valdosta | 26-9 | +48.2 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +52.5 | 39–180 |
| 81 | South Pointe SC Rock Hill | 33-8 | +58.7 | +4.3 -1.4 to +10.1 | +52.4 | 25–209 |
| 82 | Blue Springs South MO Blue Springs | 18-14 | +63.8 | +0.0 pinned | +52.3 | 65–111 |
| 83 | Cartersville GA Cartersville | 37-3 | +47.9 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +52.2 | 41–182 |
| 84 | Washington OH Massillon | 25-3 | +58.4 | +4.3 -0.6 to +9.1 | +52.2 | 34–174 |
| 85 | Brother Rice IL Chicago | 23-10 | +63.7 | -0.3 -3.7 to +3.0 | +51.9 | 51–167 |
| 86 | Mountain Vista CO Highlands Ranch | 30-5 | +70.0 | -5.5 -10.9 to -0.2 | +51.9 | 30–215 |
| 87 | Westlake TX Austin | 36-8 | +62.1 | +0.6 -4.2 to +5.4 | +51.5 | 42–175 |
| 88 | Newton GA Covington | 27-10 | +47.1 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +51.5 | 44–202 |
| 89 | McEachern GA Powder Springs | 23-12 | +47.0 | +12.9 +7.5 to +18.5 | +51.4 | 46–203 |
| 90 | Conway AR Conway | 29-7 | +68.0 | -4.4 -8.7 to -0.1 | +51.4 | 43–184 |
| 91 | Coppell TX Coppell | 37-6 | +61.9 | +0.6 -4.2 to +5.4 | +51.4 | 43–182 |
| 92 | Atascocita TX Humble | 27-12 | +61.8 | +0.6 -4.2 to +5.4 | +51.3 | 45–184 |
| 93 | Rockhurst MO Kansas City | 17-8 | +62.5 | +0.0 pinned | +51.3 | 80–129 |
| 94 | Hamilton AZ Chandler | 28-7 | +80.4 | -14.7 -21.4 to -8.3 | +51.2 | 31–285 |
| 95 | St. Edward OH Lakewood | 25-9 | +57.2 | +4.3 -0.6 to +9.1 | +51.2 | 40–200 |
| 96 | Guyer TX Denton | 28-11 | +61.7 | +0.6 -4.2 to +5.4 | +51.2 | 48–187 |
| 97 | Prosper TX Prosper | 30-7 | +61.6 | +0.6 -4.2 to +5.4 | +51.1 | 49–189 |
| 98 | Clay-Chalkville AL Pinson | 38-3 | +66.5 | -3.6 -9.4 to +2.4 | +50.9 | 38–244 |
| 99 | Lawrence North IN Indianapolis | 25-8 | +62.6 | -0.4 -5.6 to +4.7 | +50.9 | 43–225 |
| 100 | Brandon MS Brandon | 29-10 | +52.0 | +8.1 +2.5 to +13.7 | +50.7 | 37–247 |
National = 0.82 × in-state rating + state offset. The in-state rating is schedule-adjusted scoring margin inside the program's own state, uncapped, and holds 0.82 of its value across a state line: fit on the interstate games themselves, and holding a season out that beats the unshrunk version in every fold. The state offset carries its 95% range beneath it, and Range redraws every state's offset from that interval and reports where each program lands. Programs need 20+ in-state games across the three seasons to be ranked, which leaves out the travelling national academies; the Heartland page explains why. Records are in-state only.